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it's good analysis but brawl will make definitely better than you think. brawl(and kart in future)will be just like sports for wii - a game that every wii owner will be buying with console or when he will get bored with wii sports. this game will be a basic game just like sports or play(just like kart and maybe wii fit if there will be many games that will require balance board). so i think that sales of brawl will be better than wii fit sales(i think that brawl will make more than 3.5mln in japan before game will hit america)