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PS4/720 will probably in the 2 TFLOP range performance, they'll shred the Wii U apart. Next year will be a reality check for a lot of people. Sony/MS are not going to "barely" upgrade 7-8 year old hardware.
The real reason the Wii U is not a big performance jump isn't just cost IMO.
It's Nintendo insistence on having a 30-35 watt energy consumption and having a very small form factor for the console. That basically kills your choices for using even a budget modern GPU.
That said Nintendo can't release a new console. They made their bed with the Wii U and will have to lie in it, for better or worse. Maybe a new console aimed at a different audience by 2016 would be feasible, as long as the Wii U slides into the role of a budget machine.
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