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I think they're sitting on Yoshi's Land, which is probably a 2D platformer. Reason they don't want to show it yet is because it would probably take a giant dump on any buzz Rayman has, so they're doing Ubi Soft a favour and probably won't show it until after Rayman releases (it already has to compete with Mario, which is tough enough).

So that helps a little, though how much more mileage you get from a 2D Yoshi game when you already have a 2D Mario game as the centerpiece of the system is questionable.

The problem with other stuff is I'm just not sure what other big Nintendo IP can reasonably be out anytime soon.

Smash Bros. definitely not anytime soon. Mario Kart probably is a November-December game, maybe Nintendo can really whip the horses on that and get it out by summer time.