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1 Sly 2: Band of Thieves PS2 2004 Platform 0.88 0.69 0.00 0.23 1.81
2 Sly Cooper and the Thievius Raccoonus PS2 2002 Platform 1.03 0.14 0.00 0.04 1.21
3 Sly 3: Honor Among Thieves PS2 2005 Platform 0.69 0.03 0.00 0.11 0.83
4 The Sly Collection PS3 2010 Platform 0.32 0.07 0.01 0.05 0.45

 

On the PS2, the average Sly game sold ~1.2. Since platformers aren't as big as last gen, the I expect Sly 4 to sell less.

Of course it should sell more than The Sly Collection, since it's an actual new game.

So I'd say somewhere between 400k-800k.

You people predicting in the 1.5, 2.0m+ range are out of your minds.

 

Look at how the Ratchet series has dropped this gen

2 Ratchet & Clank PS2 2002 Platform 1.44 1.01 0.57 0.30 3.33
3 Ratchet & Clank: Going Commando PS2 2003 Platform 1.44 0.83 0.26 0.25 2.78
4 Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal PS2 2004 Platform 1.31 0.74 0.31 0.22 2.57
5 Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction PS3 2007 Platform 0.87 1.02 0.08 0.42 2.40
6 Ratchet & Clank Future: A Crack in Time PS3 2009 Platform 0.96 0.44 0.03 0.23 1.66
7 Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal (Weekly american sales) PS2 2004 Platform 1.27 0.05 0.00 0.02 1.33
8 Ratchet: Deadlocked PS2 2005 Shooter 0.85 0.03 0.22 0.14 1.24

The average PS2 game sold around ~2.6m. While the average PS3 game sold around ~2.0m (that's without counting A4O). Clearly, the genre is smaller than last year. The latest traditional installment of R&C sold 1.66m after three years. If you think Sly 4 is going to reach those numbers you're crazy. Firstly, Sly is much smaller than Ratchet. And secondly, Sly 4 won't have as much time to sell as R&C: ACiT.