PS3 UP YOY in USA with NO big exclusives. What gives?

[thismeintiel]

kowenicki said:

thismeintiel said:

kowenicki said:

Massively. 

Some Sony fans actually believe numbers can rise forever.  Its laughable and quite tragic.  I've got ethomaz in another thread stating the PS3 will sell more in Europe in the next 4 years than it has in the previous 4 years to now!?!? I mean.... WTF!?

What would you consider "massive."  I predict its going to be ~10% down next year, maybe even flat during Black Friday week.  Reasons being a full year of Super Slim effect, a cut to $199 (probably mid-year), a lot more AAA exclusives compared to this year, and a $150 Black Friday bundle.

It will finish this year down circa 20% and a similar amount next year.

I'm expecting that the PS3 should end with ~12M in sales (after adjustments) this year, so ~15% down overall.  However, for the reasons I stated above, I think it would really only drop a max of 10% next year.  So ~10.8M for the year.  I also see the 360 being down ~20% next year, so ~8.4M next year.