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superchunk on 03 December 2012
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gergroy said:
superchunk said:


I got totals from the global charts, not front page. So maybe off by a week's data or changes in data not present on one screen or other, etc.

You need to look at whole year, not just guessing December. X360 won't cut the gap by 2m in December alone. You're more than likely over estimating X360's potential sales this month.

2011 X360 sold 2.2m in December. They have about a 40% YOY decline so far. So, I'd bet they'll sell close to 1.5m in NA.
2011 Wii sold 1.2m in December. They'll likely be around 800k.
That means a further gap cut by less than a million.

The gap will likely still be ~3m by end of this year... especially once all adjustments are accounted for.


I think you are guilty of over estimating the wii's potential sales for december.  The Wii U was only on sale for about a week last month, but the Wii's sales totals still fell almost 50% from last year.  With the Wii u on the market for the entire month of december, and given that it sold about 1.2mill last year, I think a much more likely sales figure for the Wii this year is around 500k.  

I think the 360 will pass up the Wii in the US sometime around the end of next year.  The 360 will probably outsell the wii after december by at least 200k each month.  The 360 will have a drop off after the nextbox is announced and the especially when it comes out, but the wii sales will drop of dramatically next year as the wii u begins to take over sales.  

ok, you say I'm being to optimistic, but you only changed it by 300k. Then you give no change to the 1.5m I said 360 would do.

Even with those changes that's still barely over a million change in the total gap. Thus still no where near leaving only 1m left for 2013, but instead at best a 2.5m game (I said 3m at first and you said 1).

Then you have to consider how they will each sell in NA in 2013 given Wii will be at $99 (rock bottom prices) and X360 will start having a bunch of media coverage for its successor launching later that year (as early as September). It will have, more than likely, up to a 50% drop. (this year is/was 30% to 40%)

I agreed it may pass it in late 2013, but at this point I'd still bet on 2014. Technically we basically agree.