The 360. It's losing by small margins to the PS3 and hasn't had to compromise a lot to get its lead. Nearly 2 years with just one price cut, RROD and a 7M lead, the 360 can stand to let some of the 7M lead get chipped away by Sony. They have yet to flash their hand, are making mad money on the 360, while Sony has had to sell off a division, have a price cut or two - depending on who's doing the math - and has to refresh its console lineup just to gain inches on the 360.
You have to also assume that the PS3 will see the same gains as the 360 saw. I say it's likely, but I can not see the PS3 doing it with its current lineup. And another thing to consider - folks that buy it for the Blu Ray only. That's something that we didn't see last gen. These buyers show up as PS3 buyers, not Blu Ray buyers. Because of that, the only real way to see who's winning is - IF the PS3 pulling alongside the 360 - and attach rates are still behind - you'll have your answer.
I do think the PS3 will gain ground based on the fact that Sony is touting it as the cheapest Blu Ray player that plays video games.
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