Losing the one year head start is more than made up by the decline of Sony and the Playstation brands.
Look at Sony's recent hardware launches including Move, Go, Vita, Wonderbook, etc, all of which are viewed as flops by most people. The only reason the PS3 is selling well is because of the amount of money that Sony was willing to lose in funding price cuts and game development. Looking at Vita it's obvious that the money is drying up since the Sony of old would have thrown it a lifeline instead of letting the 3DS destroy it this year.
The last time that Microsoft and Sony went head to head was with Kinect vs. Move and we know how that turned out. What happens this time when Microsoft is able to outspend Sony by hundreds of millions if not more in advertising and also being able to use Xbox Live to make up for selling their next system at a loss (something that Sony will likely be unable to do). This is not even taking into account how much weaker Sony will be next year compared to even this year.
As for new IP if people have been paying attention they would see that Microsoft has been preparing to charge out of the gate at the next launch. There are now dozens of studios working on next generation 720 games and going by what we've heard from developers the consensus is that they expect the 720 to be the leader.
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