PS3 sales - how low will they go before picking up?

[Dolla Dolla]

Erik Aston said:
There is no floor to PS3 weekly sales. By which I mean, sales increases will merely be seasonal, while otherwise sales will continually fall.

Right now they still have hype, they still have fans waiting for games and for price drops, putting faith in the PlayStation name. This Xmas and next Xmas will not be typified by these fans finally buying PS3's, it will be typified by millions upon millions of fans finally giving up on PS3 and buying the competing systems, because PS3 will still have the highest price and worst mass-appeal lineup.

Sure, sales may be a little bit better next year, as a price cut and some marquee games finally come, but even if a $100 price cut and an incrementally improved lineup doubled sales, that increase merely gets PS3 to a point where it will sell maybe 8 million consoles a year worldwide. Considering what Wii is doing right now, and the size of the lead it will have by next year, that would be horribly inadequete.

I've already predicted that PS3 sales will fall below 60K/month for NPD US. Now let me add to that: PS3 sales will fall below 6K/week in Japan.

I think it has found its leveling out at about 8k for Japan. When was the last game released in Japan for the PS3? And, from Famitsu's Japan numbers, it looks like the PS3 might have gone up instead of down.

Also, if you have faith in VGCharts weekly numbers, it looks like the PS3 is already tracking about 57k for the past 3 weeks or so. I think this week will be the last week for NPD, so it should pull at least another 15k, which would give it somewhere in the vicinity of 70K systems for May NPD.