Realised I haven't replied to the OP.
There are two ways in which future online gaming can go:
1. Live continues to be successful to the point where other services (PSN, Nintendo online) start charging a subscription to play as they see it as easy money.
2. Microsoft start to lose customers or Live's Gold subscription rate slows right down; the number of people willing to play to play their games online either decreases (in which case they go to Sony, Nintendo or PC) or stays constant (growth rate of subscriptions levels out). They change their subscription system so people can at least play online for free, even if slightly limited (e.g 15 hours a month).
I honestly see option 2 as the more likely. Rival services are now reaching parity with Live in terms of features and apps. If we look outside the network infrastructure, many big online games/MMO titles are now going Free-2-Play. Only the likes of World of Warcraft is still charging people. Developers and publishers are finding new ways to make money, even if it's simply selling virtual hats. As consumers get used to the gradual shift to free-2-play, Microsoft's subscription system will start to seem more archaic.
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