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What makes you think Microsoft will launch first or that Sony would let them get a whole year head-start again?
We already have rumors of near-final PS4 dev kits, we don't have these for the next Xbox. In fact the last rumor/leak told us that they were having horrible yields and there was most likely going to be a delay.

Let's pretend this is true though, Microsoft does launch much earlier. Will I switch? Depends on the price and their business practices. Basic Online gaming should be free IMO. If it's not, then Xbox Live better offer some amazing content or value for me to pay that subscription. Games are also obviously a factor, they need to have an amazing game for me to impulse buy.