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Well, they can't afford financially to launch one in late 2013 but they can't afford commercially to release it much later either. Releasing a console two or even three years after the competition can turn out to be catastrophic indeed.
Sony won't let MS get one year ahead and certainly not two years, and leaving Nintendo for up to three years is madness.

We've all seen the reports on their financial status and while it may appear that they are in dire straits regardless of what they do, they have also stated that they'll increase focus on the gaming division, phones and media.
They need a new and profitable console to compete with the next xbox and they probably need it in late 2013/early 2014 at the latest.