gameheart: I never said that it won't sell 5 million in one year, it seems likely it will (I don't think it will sell 10 million though, as mentioned), the point I was making is that it won't be in the lead by 5-10 million since there are already 140 million HD consoles out there.
Why pit the Wii U against the PS360? Beacuse that's the main competition right now, the only funny thing here is the complete turnaround from "even though the Wii is a lot weaker than the PS360, they still compete in the same market and on the same terms" to "Wii U is more capable and is a true next gen console and has the market to itself". This is illogical and downright false, the Wii U is the "Wii HD" that Pachter was always whining about and it belongs specs-wise (which is the main thing for developers) in both the 7th and 8th generation of consoles.
3rd parties aren't going to jump ship on the tremendous installed base of the PS360 in favour of a Nintendo with HD capabilities (or the arbitrary "start of a new generation"), the best case scenario for the Wii U is that it recieves support on par with two consoles who are close to going out of commission and getting replacements on the market fairly soon. It remains unlikely that they will even get that, though, since 3rd parties remain sceptical of the Nintendo audiences's will to purchase their games in any bulk. It will get plenty of ports though, which is certainly better than nothing. As for your whole "Nintendo fans haven't enjoyed HD" argument, there are two problems with that; one is that HD gaming has long been available elsewhere and those who craved it so bad would have gotten their HD on by now and the other is that according to "real" Nintendo fans, HD doesn't matter anyway since visuals aren't a selling point and never has been for them (same goes for added functionality like multimedia and online gaming), so that's a double whammy right there. If anything, you should be arguing that the Wii never competed on even grounds with the PS360 since it isn't capable of HD visuals and has a lot weaker hardware, this was actually an early PS360 fan argument to disarm the Wii when it really started moving.
There is no hardware leap like in the 7th gen that will segregate the market again (nothing like the Wii - PS360 and nothing like the transition into HD and uncompressed audio and textures), its as un-dramatic as launching PC games at times when new GPU's arrive in the summer months, there isn't the same radical difference. The Wii U will have to compete with four consoles since it has sat itself neatly between where the PS360 is today in terms of hardware and where the next PS and xbox will likely aim and end up.
To even imagine that the Wii U will be able to do anything like the PS2 did is sheer madness in my opinion. The market won't allow another PS2 and the Wii U is sailing straight into dire straits and fumbling into unfamiliar territory. The fact of the matter is; Nintendo were short-sighted with the Wii, they even managed to say that "online doesn't matter". Such a company has a lot to learn in 2012 if they want to stay and remain relevant for another thirty years.
For the record; I don't put much stock in the next PS and xbox either and I don't think we'll see much growth in the console market (if any) in the 8th gen as the generation will likely be over more quickly than the 7th. As it stands, the PS2 might very well outlive the Wii and that is unprecedented in console history, for a market leader to outlive the winner of the next gen (yes, the NES and SNES were produced for a long time but hardly moved relevant numbers at all in the end, and in fact after the beginning of the next generation after them, unlike the PS2). The PS2 was a one-time thing and a home-run under absolutely perfect conditions and I honestly can't see anything like it in the future.
The Wii U does not have the HD gaming market to itself, there is no need for me to repeat that when its clear as day, this is the basest of logical surmissions right here. The Wii U doesn't have the HD market to itself any more than MPEG4 movies vs MPEG2 movies at movie streaming sites, MPEG4 is better on all accounts in some way but its still the same thing for anyone releasing movies. And there is no reason for 3rd parties to make the jump and follow Nintendo either, development cost will run the same but you have an uncertain audience and a tiny installed base to work on.
CCFanboy; "Nintendo don't just sit back and watch a platform die" That sentence can be disproven simply by using their current home console as proof, this is precisely what happened to the Wii.
Nintendo can't carry the Wii U on first party efforts alone, just like they couldn't with their previous three consoles.
And as for Zelnick comments, again, you seem to think that; Wii sells a lot = Wii U sells a lot and the fact that you compare it to the PS2 in the OP leads me to believe that you think, like so many others, that history shows the future and that things follow in set paths.
Again, the Wii disproves this, it crushed the PS3 even when Sony was in the most favourable position a gaming company has ever been in (literally) so assuming that the Wii U will take the world by storm simply based on the Wii's sales and charts is not very a decisive indicator of things to come.
Maybe Nintendo can't turn it around? They have been to slow to embrace technology, the underestimated the HD penetration rate and the importance of online and extra functionality, the Wii U shows that they are desperate to follow the lead of others, they're making a console that is very similar to what already exists, effectively blocking the magic that the Wii brought to (certain parts of) the market.
Simply offering what others have been doing for years won't do them much good .
As for the Vita, the handheld market is under real threat from mobile and tablet gaming as well as browser games and social games on social networking sites. With the Vita, Sony are trying to squeeze and force the grand home console formula into pocket format, and they're failing hard. The best selling DS and 3DS games are the ones made by developers who realise that you need to tailor your product to the market and media/format, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and similar franchises lose all their merit on tiny screens with poor sound and wonky controls.
I guess what I'm saying is; the Vita is a mistake, something I think we can actually agree on.
Perhaps core gamers will be more accepting of the Wii U, at least as far as the games are concerned, I'm not sure about the Gamepad controller though. But, if they fail to keep their hold on the casuals, the massive sales will be hard to come by. Like I've said; I think they're trying to catch both groups and might end up between markets.
Like the age old saying; "If you chase two rabbits, you will lose them both."
