VGKing on 10 November 2012
Well Kinect is way cheaper, and it is riding the XBox 360s coat-tails. So it's entirely possible...but then again, Vita isn't even 1 year old yet. It hasn't had its first holiday yet....Vita will rise. The easiest way would be a price cut, but that is just a temporary boost, it would go back to doom levels and Sony would be losing a lot of money on a dying handheld.
It seems like Sony isn't support the Vita, but there really isn't much they can do. There's a great library on it, and more coming the next few weeks. That should hopefully put it in a position to outsell the Nintendo DS.(No, not 3DS) this holiday.
Long Story Short: No way to know for sure although from the looks of it, your prediction sounds about right.
