I don't think Nintendo has picked up any more hardcore gamers with the 3DS then it has with the DS before it, but I think in the coming year it might. Monster Hunter has basically migrated to the 3DS and that will convert a lot of Japanese gamers. If Nintendo can develop/publish more games like Fire Emblem, Tales of the Abyss, and Resident Evil, port games like Bravery Default, and maybe create/introduce new ops like they did on GBA (Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Fire Emblem, etc) then Nintendo has a good chance at stealing the hardcore. Also with strong 3rd party support from Atlus (Shin Megami Tensei 4) and Capcom, Nintendo might just knock Sony out of the handheld market, or at least make them niche like Sony did to N64 and GCN.
Right now though, Nintendo isn't doing enough, had it not been for Altus and Capcom developing for Nintendo, Sony may have been able to get a good hold on the Japanese market.
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