Who will win?

[redspear]

First no console in last place will last 10 years or even 8 for that matter. If Sony falters this gen than you will see a PS4 in 2011 despite what the PR says. The SNES lasted another a year or two after the introduction of the PS1 becaause it was the market leader at the time and the third party support was going there. The PS1 even went a year or two into the PS2 cycle for the same reason. If the Wii wins this generation it will last 7-9 years while the 360 and the PS3 will last 4-5 years. Anyways, I see the PS3 ending with about 24 million and the 360 doing around 35 million and the Wii with around 70 million by the end of the generation. I have said it before and will say it for 80 percent of the population HD doesnot matter. Even when a lot of people buy HDTV they buy it because it is big and flat. I know people who own HDTVs with a few exception they think they are watching HDTV when they watch a nonHD channel(even with it being squished) It drives me crazy personally. Most people can't tell the difference between EDTV and HDTV let alone 1080P and 720P. Videophiles and hardcore gamers are a small percentage of the public. The PS3 has a large hill to climb to make it back it has some great games coming out for it but great games did not save the N64. It still may do it. Develeopers were slow in truly supporting the Wii and early in supporting the PS3 so if they can squeeze off a nice price drop before the last of this round of games support is released and before the first round of third party support on the Wii starts to shine it may be able to take advantage of the breathing room. The 360 is a different story. If it weren't for Japan I would say it would of won but it is struggling in Japan and that hurts variety. However it has and will have a strong support and image in the US(again similiar to the N64). It has the advantage of a 1 year head start which is good for the library and development of games and if it can maintain the US sales lead for another year than I think it may be a very close race between the Wii and 360. The Wii has been selling phenomonally. This is without that many AAA games. IT would take a train wreck for sales to stop. In fact it may be selling too well if Nintendo can't meet demand by August stores will not be able to adequately stock for this holiday which will hurt sales. If the were to get ahead by 10 million sales WW by the end of next there will be no chance for the other systems to catch and despite what people think here it will get the games that made the PS2 and PS1 popular and you will see the next XBOX and PS in 2011 while the Wii sells well one year into the Wii2s lifetime.