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i won't predict software death, as each year the new gh game will be on ps2 as well and there are still some games made for old systems here and there...so i'll just predict when each console/handheld will get its replacement launched (so ps2 is already done)

 psp->360->ps3->wii

i didn't put ds in because a new ds will only come out if/when psp2 launches with a touchscreen and has some differentiators that give it a strategic advantage over the ds...otherwise, no reason for Nintendo to make a successor to the ds anytime soon 

 

360/ps3 will release consoles before Nintendo because they HAVE to

in the next 5 years, there will be as many 'non-gamers' joining the market as there are currently 'gamers'...they will join because of the wii and the wiimote

sony/ms aren't dumb...they won't want to be unable to compete for HALF of the market...they will release new consoles that will have full motion/ir controls so they can have a shot at getting some users from that half of the market

gamepads are a barrier to entry for the 80% of the population that are non-gamers and wiimote gets around that



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp