Some may attack me but honestly In some of the polls it doesn't make sense how some are using methodologies that are very similar to 2008.
Here is what is happening:
Independents are leaning to Romney by at least 6 points nationally.
In 2008 Obama held a 8% turnout advantage of Democrats over Republicans.
in 2008 Obama had a very large early vote lead going into the election.
in 2008 McCain was only down from Obama by 3% among Election Day voters.
in 2012 Obama does not have a national lead anywhere near what he had in 2008 among early voters. Mostly I have seen it fairly close.
in Ohio among early voters for example: less democrats have voted than in 2008. More Republicans have voted than in 2008. The numbers show in 2008 in Ohio early voters Obama held a 300,000+ vote advantage over McCain. in 2012 so far Obama only had around a 70,000 early vote advantage over Romney as of yesterday. In 2008 Obama won Ohio by roughly 260,000 votes. Therefore Obama's advantage has all but been eliminated if the same turnout model happens today that happened in 2008.
Ohio has a vast majority of Republican elected public officials as well as in the State congress
In 2010 midterm elections Republican turnout was huge and many Republicans were elected into office. Since 2010 there has not been any real evidence that Republicans/ Independent Tea Party types are less enthusiastic.
It is likely among many enthusiasm gauging that Romney will get more net votes in this election than McCain did in 2008.
It is likely among many enthusiasm gauging that Obama will either get less votes than 2008 or a small chance that it will be about the same. There is very little chance he will get more.
In the 2012 Recall of Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin the polls were showing that Governor Walker was at serious risk to lose the election. It ended up being he won by a substantial margin. He won by a 7% margin. 53% to 46%.
All this to say if the same turnout margins happen that happened in 2008 then Obama has the edge. If the energy is on the side of Republicans/Conservative types as well as Independents leaning to Romney then its only reasonable that the gap between Republicans and Democrats will not be 8% again. I think at best it will be +3% Democrat over Republican. If thats the case then Romney has a very good shot at winning. If the turn out is even then Romney will win big.
Here is my thoughts on what the swing states will do:
North Carolina: Romney (Solid)
Florida: Romney
Colorado: Romney
Virginia: Romney (Somewhat close)
Ohio: Romney (somewhat close)
Wisconsin: Very Close! I give a slight edge to Romney on this one
New Hampshire: Very Close! I give a slight edge to Romney on this one
Iowa: Very close! I give a slight edge to Romney on this one
Pennsylvania: Close, and could fall either way depending on turnout but edge to Obama
Nevada: Obama
Michigan: Obama
Minnesota: Obama
New Mexico: Obama (Solid)
In Summary this would Tally to:
Romney: 295
Obama: 243
I think both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will end up being close enough that they could fall either direction. That is especially true if turn out is something like Democrats +3% instead of the Democrats +8% in 2008.
I personally think there are 3 outcomes. Either Obama wins by a slim margin, Romney wins by a slim margin, or Republican and Independent turn out is huge and Romney wins handily. I don't see much of a scenario that shows Obama at a blow out.
Ceiling for Obama is that he takes Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa. And therefore its:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
Romney's ceiling if Republican/ Conservative Tea party turn out is very large and either matches Democrats or outdo them by +1% or +2% then Romney could take these states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Minnesota, and the 1 separate district Electoral Vote in Maine. And New Mexico, Oregon, and New Jersey would not be out of the realm of possibility But I still think that would be very far fetched. In Romney's ceiling then it could be:
Romney: 348
Obama: 190
In spite of all I have written here Romney has to win Ohio. If not then he has to win Wisconsin, Colorado, and another small state OR Pennsylvania and another small state but if he does not win Ohio then its likely he wouldn't win either of those.
