nuckles87 said:
Not my point. It would be unprecedented for the vast majority of state and national polls to be pointing in one candidate's direction and BE WRONG. What most of these polls did was just underestimate Obama's margin of victory, which could have been affected by Republicans simply not going out to vote because they were going to lose. The only states that actually flipped in Obama's direction despite the polls were Indiana and North Carolina, where he was behind by less then a percentage point and won by less the one. |
The elections are a lot closer this year though. A lot of the states are within a couple percentage points, and as you said, you always have the problem of predicting exactly who is going to turn out to vote. Essentially, Romney only has to swing a few states leaning Obama's way to win the election. I will say, there will probably need to be a systematic democratic bias in these polls for Romney to win, which a lot of Republicans have been claiming. The only test is the actual election results, so we'll see. : )
