GameOver22 said:
Kasz216 said:
GameOver22 said:
The problem is that those links have Obama's margin of victory at +6.15 and +6.5 when his actual margin of victory was +7.2. They actually updated the analysis later when the true election results were known.
Accuracy Report- pages 4 and 5 (or 899/900 depending on how you look at it)
Edit: As for RCP, it might be because they keep a rolling average. I don't know how far back their numbers go when they calculate an average.
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Reading that suggests that every election but 2008 had significant democratic bias... and 2008 was only slightly not biased.
So i think the point still remains.
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Except 2000. They only looked at four elections. 1996 had democratic bias. 2000 had republican bias. 2004 had democratic bias. 2008 had no statistically significant bias. I hardly call that a trend of democratic bias.
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Missed that...
Which i also find confusing because well...
from everything i remember. Gore was favored to win in all of the polls.
It's part of why everybody was so pissed.
I remember Gore having like a 10% poll advantage a month or so before the election then somehow losing.
Maybe i'm thinking of exit polling at the end I dunno.
