2012 Election Center: The Main Event - Obama Wins

[Kasz216]

GameOver22 said:

Kasz216 said:

GameOver22 said:

Kasz216 said:

GameOver22 said:

Kasz216 said:

GameOver22 said:

 

A

I don't know. It seems like the national polls from 2008 were pretty accurate. On average, they overestimated Obama's share by 0.3% points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

First off... the most obviouis... that list only shows 15 pollsters... not the full 23 mentioned in the accuracy reports.

Where's the accuracy report?

All i can find at the moment is the barebones one

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Well that and this one in regards to total accuracy

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

 

And I'd also note... the RCP averages don't actually match up with if you were to average the RCP numbers.

The problem is that those links have Obama's margin of victory at +6.15 and +6.5 when his actual margin of victory was +7.2. They actually updated the analysis later when the true election results were known.

Accuracy Report- pages 4 and 5 (or 899/900 depending on how you look at it)

Edit: As for RCP, it might be because they keep a rolling average. I don't know how far back their numbers go when they calculate an average.

Reading that suggests that every election but 2008 had significant democratic bias... and 2008 was only slightly not biased.

So i think the point still remains.