Kasz216 said:
GameOver22 said:
Kasz216 said:
GameOver22 said:
gergroy said:
gallops last poll came out today, romney 49, obama 48
interesting |
I was actually more interested in the fact that Gallup had it that close. Prior to Sandy hitting (after which they suspended their polls), all their polls were generally showing Romney up by 4-6 points. I was almost thinking that Obama's mini-surge was just a product of Gallup exiting the polls.
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That's actually pretty common for Gallup.
Last presidential election they were tied with Rasmussen when Rasmussen for "Most accurate final number" hoever were horrible when it came to consistency in their poll numbers.
They likely have an oversampling of undecideds/people who change their mind.
On the one hand... I think Obama will win. On the otherhand it's hard to discount Rasmussen whose sample has been in 1st place when figuring out who will be President. It's why there is a very real chance of a popular vote/electoral vote split.
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Interesting. I never really payed much attention to gallup in particular. I just saw their numbers shoot up to around +7 at one point and hover around that area, so it caught my attention. We were discussing it in one of my classes, and one suggestion was that their likely voter model might be suspect. I guess they don't make their screening process public. Personally, I don't know much about it, but the poll numbers were odd.
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Actually, i double checked that and I was wrong...
it was Pew that was like that last tine. Sorry.
In 08, Gallup just like the majority of polls over estimated Obama's poll numbers. (Gallup by +2%.)
Which is really the warning that may come to bear. Polling tends to skew democrat... it's just rarely close enough to matter.
Still, it makes me think their problem is largely in overepresenting undecideds.
Either way, if you were to base elections based on previous accuracy, You'd use a mix of Rasmussen, Ruerters and GWU, and maybe Pew though their consistency is questionable.
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I don't know. It seems like the national polls from 2008 were pretty accurate. On average, they overestimated Obama's share by 0.3% points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
