Kasz216 said:
That's actually pretty common for Gallup.
They likely have an oversampling of undecideds/people who change their mind.
On the one hand... I think Obama will win. On the otherhand it's hard to discount Rasmussen whose sample has been in 1st place when figuring out who will be President. It's why there is a very real chance of a popular vote/electoral vote split. |
Interesting. I never really payed much attention to gallup in particular. I just saw their numbers shoot up to around +7 at one point and hover around that area, so it caught my attention. We were discussing it in one of my classes, and one suggestion was that their likely voter model might be suspect. I guess they don't make their screening process public. Personally, I don't know much about it, but the poll numbers were odd.