gergroy said:
I don't know, a lot of these polls out there are all within the margin of error. It will come down to voter turnout. I wouldn't say Obama has it locked up, but I would say he is the favorite to win. |
Margin of error only matters for individual polls. In polling composites, the margin of error is reduced SIGNIFICANTLY. Right now most swing state polls and national polls are moving in Obama's direction. The consensus is that Obama is going to win. So long as the people who say they are likely voters actually vote, of course.
There have been instances when the polling consensus has been off, but the vast majority of the time when most of the polls begin to move in one direction, THOSE are the polls that are right. Not the handful of outliers that see something else.
fivethirtyeight.com is now seeing a 91.5 % chance of an Obama victory come tomorrow. The forecast has been moving in his direction since mid October, and this is by far the highest rating he's ever had on the site, and it's all because of the direction of the polling.
Romney's only real shot is that the polling consensus is simply wrong, and the handful of pollsters showing better numbers for him are correct. Ohio and several other state polls would need to be biased toward Obama by about 3-4% for this to happen.
There is always that chance, of course, which is why Romney still has an 8.5% chance of victory. It would just take the numbers to be wrong by an unprecedented amount.
