gergroy said:
I don't think Romney will win the electoral college. I think Obama did too good of a job pulling out the George W. technique and destroying romney early in the key states. However, Romney could eek out a popular vote victory, especially with states like new york still recovering from sandy that would have gone Obama by large margins. I think you guys are overestamating the third party vote. I would anticipate the third party vote to be more like 3%. so in my opinion, I think the popular vote will end up with romney or Obama at 49% and 48%, with either of them possibly ahead by 1%. The other parties will get 3%. |
That 9% wasn't strictly third party vote ... It included undecided voters too.
I figure there are (probably) about 4% to 6% of people who are intending on voting for a third party candidate, and about 4% to 6% of people who are probably still undecided.