HappySqurriel said:
At the moment I think that of people who are going to vote about 45% are intending on voting for Romney, about 46% are intending on voting for Obama, and about 9% plan on voting for a third party candidate or are truly undecided. I think the two most likely outcomes are for third party voters to maintain their vote and the undecided voters to split pretty evenly which leads to an Obama win, or for the third party vote to disappear into Romney and for undecided voters to split in favour of Romney leading to a significant win for Romney. |
I don't think Romney will win the electoral college. I think Obama did too good of a job pulling out the George W. technique and destroying romney early in the key states. However, Romney could eek out a popular vote victory, especially with states like new york still recovering from sandy that would have gone Obama by large margins.
I think you guys are overestamating the third party vote. I would anticipate the third party vote to be more like 3%.
so in my opinion, I think the popular vote will end up with romney or Obama at 49% and 48%, with either of them possibly ahead by 1%. The other parties will get 3%.
