2012 Election Center: The Main Event - Obama Wins

[Kasz216]

gergroy said:

chocoloco said:

mrstickball said:
I think it'll be within 20 EVs either way.

I think Romney wins by winning in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

Highly unlikely, as Ohio has never had an average lead  for Romney in the state. His current average on RealClearPolitics has President Obama at 2.9% in favor for the state.

It all really comes down to the accuracy of the polls.  Personally, I think most of them are pretty accurate, or at least accurate enough for obama to win in the way i outlined earlier.  However, the oversampling of democrats present in most polls gives some credibility to people doubting the polls accuracy.  

Voter turnout will be an issue... despite democrats having a voter turnout advantage over republicans... it's much smaller then it was in 2000.

interesting too is that nobody is worried about the Bradley effect anymore.  I've only seen one place mention it.

Likely because republicans want to argue race isn't a factor, and if the bradley effect really is true... Obama would be very vulnerable.