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superchunk on 01 November 2012
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happydolphin said:

Superchunk, time to dispel the second aspect of your self-fulfilling prophecy theory.

You mentioned that the HD market sustains sales of core games because 3rd parties created that market.

Now look at two games that cater to that market, one that came out on Wii, the other that came out on the twins. We would expect the launch-window sales to rival the launch-window sales of core market games on other platforms. In this case, let's compare Red Steel to Gears of War.

One ended up selling .5million, the other sold roughly 6m. I'll let you guess which sold what on which platform.

Fast forward a few years.

If your theory were true, here is what I would expect of their sequels. Red Steel stays flat while Gears goes radically up.

Instead, both stay at the same levels. This happens also with Assassin's Creed vs No More Heroes.

Red Steel and Gears are vastly different by a lot of things and simply put, Gears is a far better game. Gears was the single best game on 360 at the time and RS was known to suck right off the bat and overshadowed by ZeldaTP among many other quality games.

I don't see how their sequels prove or deny my theory. They are sequels to greatly different games in terms of style, quality and so on.

Really, its painfully obvious Wii's surge died off as it became apparent large 3rd party games were not coming (late 2009). COD shows core games would have made good ROI if down-ported in a manner that presented the same game with lower visuals and even some lower content such as multiplayer features. I think its a very good argument to make that had other big games done the same in 2007, 2008 and so one, Wii would have continued past 50% market share as many users would have considered them good enough to not purchase a 2nd system.

But it doesn't really matter. It can't be proven either way as we only have one high end 3rd party game to use as an example, COD and that started to happen after the damage had already been done and the core market on Wii was already buying PS360s.