FunKrusher said:
Thank you for some one with some sort of sense on this site. I don't like to be called names by asinine people who have no clue about anything about me or my preferences. You're correct, I did say that I posted ignorantly. But the main point of my post was that those games would not cause a major spike increase to the Ps3's sales to all of sudden make it leap and nearly triple it's sales output in the manner of their respective leads. If there was any confusion over my above post, I wrote that at work and was in a hurry.
But now that the numbers have been made for 2 competing games, there is a point to be made to hello217 the genius. Here it comes I hope it's not too hard for you to understand:
Okay so you're telling me that when GT3 was released there was 9.1 systems sold. But what were the INITIAL NUMBERS MOVED. Actually that's irrelevant let's just take a look at TOTAL LIFETIME SALES of the games in question. Let's take 2 things into acoount about the GT series in looking at the TOTAL LIFETIME SALES 1. They have more games in their franchise 2. They are available on a system that had 100million + users Now let's take a look at the numbers you have CLEARLY posted in your "refute" If we take that 10million avg. LIFETIME SALES number on a system that has 100million users that's a rate of 10% of the fanbase that they have sold to. Now if we look at halo which has sold an avg. of 7 million to a fanbase of 15 million xbox users that comes out to a little over 46%. To take it further. If a franchise as a whole sells roughly 44 million to a user base of 100 million that's 44% going to the install base If another franchise (we can only take the first 2 that came out on the same system) sells 14.88 to a user base of 15 million that's a littlie bit more than a 90% going to the to the install base. SIMPLE MATH You're right I am smart, I can do simple math. Something that seems to escape you. The funny thing is I didn't even want to argue this, but you posting up numbers for the sheer hell of it (I guess trying to prove something?), forced me into it. Now I have you documented as saying specifically that the GT franchise is a BIGGER franchise than Halo? Um based on the numbers you, as in you, yourself posted, that doesn't exactly seem to be the case. I mean I'm not a mathematician but selling to 90% of the people that own your system is just a tad bit more than selling to 44% of the people that own your system. But I could be wrong/sarcasm. So in saying that GT is a bigger franchise than Halo? I'm sorry but the numbers, the ones you, yourself username hello217, posted really don't support your claim. So how can you? Feel free refute that. Please, please do. Now even if we bump up the Ps2 sales to 120 million(which I believe it has sold to date) that's 43 million to a 120 million fanbase meaning the ratio of people that own the system that are buying the game becomes: 36-37% which is still LESS than 90% Now I'm not sure what the final tally is on xbox systems sold. I checked here and the last number I could get in december 05 was 15million so that's what I went off of. But I've posted my numbers/sources and used the ones you provided and that's what I got. Anybody can post a bunch of total numbers that they cut and pasted from a source and say "Gee whiz! Look game A which has 4 iterations in it's franchise outsold game B in TOTAL LIFETIME sales. Game B which has 3 iterations in it's franchise. Not too mention the fact that game A is on a system with 100million users to game B's 15 million users!" "Yes of course! Game A is a better franchise because it's sold more games!!!" But you have to go deeper than that (which I did and laid out for you, hope it was easier for you to understand this time). And which pretty blantly prove that the nonsense you were talking was WRONG (I capitilized it so you could maybe comprehend it better), all the while using your own numbers. So who's the fanboy again?
And lastly (with less venom) of course those NEW games are going to help push systems, that's a given there won't be any negative curve in sales (at least we hope not!). But like I said initially they won't increase sales astronomical. Now note this whole time I've said nothing about projecting 360 sales (outside of Halo3 franchise) or Wii. This assming that neither of these systems get games or spikes to up their hardware numbers. Because quite frankly who knows how well future games are going to sell on these systems for sure? I certainly don't. But I ask you sir again. Please do refute exactly the cold hard facts that I have provided using your numbers. I'll wait or in the very least check back again in the morrow. It's late here. |
Okay cool. I think we agree on the main point which is that the big exclusivs won't cause an immediate spike in sales, but it will help sales gradually.
As to the GT versus Halo debate, I think we may have different definition of what constitutes a "big francise". I think GT is a bigger franchise simply because it has sold a lot more games. Now you seem to think that Halo is a bigger franchise simply because it has a much larger attach rate. I don't like to say a franchise is big due to x% sold to its fanbase for this reason: consider that tomorrow Apple comes out with a new console, and sells exactly 100 consoles. Its only game, let's call it iGame, sells 90 copies. Now this game has sold to 90% of its console's fanbase but I wouldn't consider it to be as big as GT or Halo. Obviously it's an extreme example but you get where I'm getting at. With that said, I agree that Halo is arguably more influential, and more of a system seller than GT. So if you want to think of that as being the bigger franchise, I'll respect that opinion.
Another brief point I wanted to make: you seem to think that the main reason GT has sold more than Halo is because GT was published on a console that sold a lot more. But I don't think GT sold as many copies as it did because of the PS2. Rather, I think the PS2 has sold as much as it did because of games like GT. Why?
1. The claim "GT sold a lot because of so many PS2s out there" doesn't make sense because when GT3 came out, PS2 only had a 9 million install base. GT3 sold well upon its debut despite PS2's small base at the time.
2. PS2 sales were sluggish in its first year until the big exclusives like GT3, FFX, MSG2, and GTAIII came out. The most logical explanation for the growth of PS2 sales seems to be because of these games (I don't think a price cut came at the time).
Now to the PS3 and GT5 analogy. Either one of two things will happen:
1. GT5 will not sell as much as GT3 and GT4 because of PS3's small install base.
2. PS3 sales are sluggish until big exlusives like GT5 hits, which leads to a gradual growth of PS3 sales.
Looks familiar? Looks just like the PS2 and GT3 situation. Based on history, I think #2 is much more likely to happen. Therefore, even though GT3 and 4 had "relatively poor attach rates" and PS3's install base is CURRENTLY small, I still think GT5 will sell boatloads, as will more PS3s.
By the way, as someone else pointed out, the XBOX numbers you used were wrong. It's more like 24 million WW. That still gives Halo a huge attach rate, but I've already explained why I don't think attach rate is as important as absolute numbers.
Anyway, sorry if the guys here are being too harsh on you, but double-check your numbers in the future will help because people tend to get annoyed by wrong numbers posted. Take it easy.