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Ninty has the casual audience is no argumnet for me since Microsoft and Sony will also have those audience. Those audience will be splittet up between the three.

Andf if we asume sales predictions by gaming past than sony should have won this gen easily. But it dont happened.

Nothing against your opinion but its a little ridicoulus thinking that someone will dominate without knowing what the competition has to offer ( launch games, launch price, kinect 2.0, Eye Toy Cam 2.0 etc, hiow heavy do they advertise there plattform etc).

So ninty has the ninty fans- but so have the N64 and Game Cube ( Those two plattforms also had there Mario Kart, Super mario and so on)
Ninty has the casula audience- but so have Microsoft and Sony right now and they willlikely expand this audience too with things like Kinect 2.0 and maybe Eye Toy Cam 2.0
Ninty has the hardcore audience with Wii U but so have Microsoft and Sony. Will the hardciore gamer switch over Wii U for Assassins Creed 3 if he can play it on his PS3 and has his friend salsoi on PS3. I doubt it.

Sure some will switch over and the hardcore loyalist will buy the Wii u in the first three weeks. But wjat depends is how the console sell the whole first year. And only if it managed to sell well in this first year you can bring the domination argument.