GameOver22 said:
Why +3 percent? That seems like an arbitrary and cherry-picked number. |
That's what occurred in 1876. If you disclude that election, no President has received +1% nationally and lost the electoral vote.
RCP Average | 10/15 - 10/24 | -- | -- | 47.9 | 47.0 | Romney +0.9 |
Rasmussen Reports | 10/22 - 10/24 | 1500 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 47 | Romney +3 |
ABC News/Wash Post | 10/21 - 10/24 | 1386 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 47 | Romney +3 |
IBD/TIPP | 10/19 - 10/24 | 948 LV | 3.5 | 45 | 47 | Obama +2 |
Gallup | 10/18 - 10/24 | 2700 LV | 2.0 | 50 | 47 | Romney +3 |
Associated Press/GfK | 10/19 - 10/23 | 839 LV | 4.2 | 47 | 45 | Romney +2 |
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun | 10/18 - 10/21 | 1402 LV | 2.6 | 48 | 45 | Romney +3 |
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 10/17 - 10/20 | 816 LV | 3.4 | 47 | 47 | Tie |