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superchunk on 24 October 2012
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I think 5.5m for launch to March31 is definitely too low.

Wii was 6m in same time frame (Nintendo only was able to ship 5.7m) but could of sold at least 12m had they produced that many.

WiiU is definitely going to be a hot item. Seeing what happened to Wii and the game lineup they were planning, Nintendo should of shot for at least 8m in that time frame. 6m in 2012 for holiday/launch and 2m for Q1 2013.

The higher amount would have made cost to manufacture lower as well helping with the 'selling at a loss' scenario as each item would have been a lower cost. I know they are cautious due to how 3DS stumbled out the game. However, it had NO SOFTWARE and a price that was double what the DS launched at. WiiU has A TON of great launch software and is at a reasonable price for a console.

This is one rare item I actually agree with Pacman.

As for the 4 games per console, that makes sense. I have more than 10 games on that list I want. By March31 there is AT LEAST 4 Nintendo games I want, let alone the many more 3rd party games coming. You have to figure in each territory, all WiiUs will have AT LEAST two games bought at launch. Then over the course of the next 4+ months, most will get two more games and a lot should be purchasing more than that. I know I will.

>80% of users will have NintendoLand and NSMBU, easily. Then you have large segment that will have COD and ZombiU. Finally you have AssCreed3, JustDance4, Pikmin3, MonsterHunter3, Rayman, Scribblenauts, and probably a massive push on digital sales for everyone on the deluxe WiiUs with the 10% discounts.

24m is a solid estimate from Nintendo. However, it kills me that its actually low as they should be putting out 8m consoles in that same time frame, thus up to 35m copies of software.