HappySqurriel on 24 October 2012
| binary solo said: Funny thing is the Ppundits are saying Ohio or Florida are key battleground states, but if the states that look fairly locked in for Obama all go his way then of the toss up states Obama only needs Colorado and New Hampshire to get over the line. This means he can lose Ohio and Florida and still become president. There are really 5 toss up States. Obama can win with one or 2 of those states falling to him. Romney needs 4 of those 5 to fall for him. Iowa is pretty marginal for Obama, so if that's too close to call then the number of toss up states each candidate needs evens out a bit. But Romney still needs more of those too ups than Obama. Interestingly the so-called Missouri bellwether didn't go with Obama last time and it's definitely not going with Obama this time, so if Obama wins then it's barometer reputation is severely weakened. |
In my opinion, realclearpolitics has a better electoral college map than fivethirtyeight because of how it handles toss-up states; any state where the two candidates are closer than 5% is considered a toss up, and this works better because in this range poll methodology, voter enthusiasm, and likely-vs-unlikely voters make a huge difference.
At the moment there are 10 toss up states, 8 of which both candidates are within 3% of eachoter, and 5 of which the candidates are within 2% of eachother.
Basically, if party turnout matched 2008 it is likely that Obama will win, if it is closer to 2004 it is likely that Obama will lose ...
