Sony often said that they are following a 10 year plan. The sales are slowing, but are still not that bad. There are still enough games coming out and the installbase is very high.
I think that both consoles will have a hard time in getting people to "upgrade" their system within the first two years. There will be no significant Software and the prices will still be high. It is the same with the VITA. I bet that there are many like me who are just waiting for the first few really big games or the first price drop before they buy one (I can still pick up the Uncharted Game next year). The sales of the 3DS picked up just after the first price drop and more Software releases.
Apart from Fandom there is no real benefit in being an early adopter. You just pay more to get the inferior hardware just to be able to play a little earlier. My launch PS3 went Ylod after 3 Years and I would have been better of if I bought my PS3 when they introduced the slim... I will not make that mistake again. And many early adopters of the X360 may have similar feelings after the RROD desaster.
To be honest, I could spent two more years with my PS3 and I would still enjoy gaming. There is not much room for improvement for the "not so Hardcore" gamer and I think that the next generation may really be the last one... but just because it will last for a very long time.
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