happydolphin said:
Phenom, you need to understand my argument first before judging any implications. I wasnot saying the U has no chance in hell. We both agree that the Wii was a novelty. The only difference between you and I is that the U can offer a novelty phenomenon once again. I also agree that the U will be novel, but I don't believe it will be a novelty. I know this sounds confusing, but what I mean is that Nintendo boomed in 2006 due to the use of novelty and adequate marketing, the Wii had an explosive reaction and went viral. What happens with the U is that, even though it's novel (I agree with you), the recipe for explosion is not there due to what I consider a variant of the observer's paradox. Yes, this is purely speculative. I believe that the novelty factor is a consummable, and as a sentiment it is one that is very difficult to recreate. The best argument you would have against that was your mention of the ipad2. Funny thing, in the first counter-point you raised, you mentioned the ipad2. In the same post you quoted to raise that counterpoint, I had mentioned two solutions to this paradox: 1) A significant hardware upgrade (like the ipad2). and 2) Attractive exclusives. The point #2 is very debatable, and it will be very difficult to tell how appealing NSMBU for instance will be appealing to its target audience, since the whole novelty sentiment as a consumable effect is inherent to that proposal as well. (ie the solution to the initial problem is plagued with the same problem). The same can be said about Wii Fit U, and all the Touch Generation games that sold gangbusters on DS, but are struggling to push a sale on the 3DS (Nintendogs, Brain Training). A similar argument can be made for NSMB, NSMB2, NSMBU, as well as Wii Fit U. The exception to this for some reason seems to be Just Dance 4, as that phenomenon is still on the upswing it seems (again, speculation, but the trends are there to point to that).
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What lol? NSMB2 isn't exactly underperforming, so that should show you NSMBU may not as well. The most important part though is how you point some DS games that didn't continue success on the 3DS but failed to mention the 3DS not needing them to succeed to outpace the DS. Which means if Wii Fit U does underperform the WiiU may not need it. How about this we will wait and see. I personally think NSMBU will definetly sell less upfront since NSMBWii did release to a massive WIi userbase but i think NSMBU, Nintyland, Wii Fit U, MH3U, DQ10 beta, the gamepad, NintendoTVii, and Miiverse will push more WiiUs in the first 4 months than the Wii did. After that i dont know since i dont know what Ninty has coming for the rest of 2013.
