I play my 3DS with the 3D effect on half way most of the time probably only have the 3D effect at full blast less then 10%, but yeah it would have sold roughly the same if it was just the DS2 or DS-HD with similar features and games.
Not having the touch screen would have killed not only the DS but Nintendo itself. They wouldn't have been forced to come up with off the wall games like Nintendogs, Professor Layton and Brain Training that propelled the DS early on, before NSMB, past the PSP that it was initially neck and neck with until it pulled away thanks to those games. And the success of the DS over the more powerful PSP inspired the Wii so, like former company President Yamamuchi was famously quoted of saying before its release... the DS will take Nintendo to Heaven or drive them to Hell.
The touch screen, while not as important in all games recently was massively important in making the DS system viable.
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