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Not sure why the last thread was locked... but given the time frame in the OP, I'm still going to pick the Vita.

It has a few releases that should do well in the West in CoD (even if it looks like it'll be bad), AssCreed, and LBP. So, it *SHOULD* do better than the Wii, though I do think the Wii might put up better than expected numbers. I don't expect the Vita to outsell the Wii by much though, and I can totally see the Wii doing better if those games are ignored in favor of their console brethren.

So all in all, it's a toss up, but I'm leaning toward Vita.

Wildcard:  A $99 dollar Wii.  O_o