Why Is The Left Lying To Itself?

[thismeintiel]

Tigerlure said:

Of course it won't reflect 2008. Many people are now independents instead of Democrats or Republicans. That doesn't mean they won't vote for Obama again though. Also, I'm definitely going to put my stock in Gallup or another professional polling agency than unskewedpolls.com or some random right wing guy or who didn't like the fact that Romney was losing. You simply don't change polls just to put your guy in the lead. The two links I posted explain exactly why that is wrong. Democrats complained of the polling samples back in 2004 using the same excuse Republicans are making and they still lost. Republicans are just doing the same now.

So let me get this straight.  You're saying the turnout of the 2012 election isn't going to be like the one in 2008, because there are more Independents than Democrats and Republicans (which I agree), yet you put your faith in a poll that uses a model that says there will be a much higher turn out of Democrats this election than there was even in 2008?  A higher turnout of them than Independents, too?  Makes no sense, whatsoever. 

And again, I didn't change the poll "just to put my guy in the lead."  I changed it so that it reflected the turnout of 2008, a best case scenerio for Obama in my opinion, with 31% Democrats, 29% Republicans, and 40% Independents (instead of the poll's 37% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 34% Independent).  Just putting the Democrats back down to the 31% of 2008 puts Romney up by 3 points.  And then in every poll I've seen, Romney is up by at least 8 points, some as high as 15 points, with Indepedents.  Now if I were a Democrat and I saw a poll has that big of an advantage for Democrats, but Obama is only up by 3%, I'd be a little worried.