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I'm still not convinced that GTA4 will cause any lasting boost in HD console sales, especially when the Wii has titles to help counter it(SSBB, Mario Kart and Wii Fit will all likely come out within the same timeframe). Really depends on if the market is still GTA crazy like it was in the past. I don't expect it to sell as well as GTA:SA, but it should do better than the two 'stories' games that came out after.

Now if Microsoft/Sony pull out a price drop around the time of GTA4's launch, it may be a different story.

The real question is if Nintendo taking 50% of the market would be good for the industry. I'd personally say no. We're not recovering from a gaming market crash so some healthy competition is good for everybody(especially us gamers).