| Oyvoyvoyv said: Family Ski did 24K, that's good. Expect that one to sell 100K + in Scandinavia, people up here do nothing but Ski. I'm sure it might even be a system seller :O 340K is Nintendo's limit. 1.8M/month/30days=60K/day*7 days=360K - 20K for holiday = 340K/week. |
1.8m per month x 12 = 21.6m per year
21.6m/52 = 415k per week
VGC has shown well under 415k per week since the last week off the holiday surge. Estimate sales for JPN look to be in the range of 100k for a WW total of 340k. This is not the max. Either inventory withholding begins early for Nintendo this year, or they simply are not selling at the rate of production. Most likely the former since I'm still not seeing them on shelves this year. Starting to wonder if it really isn't Nintendo's distribution channels that are to blame.
Stock is at 55.25 down from a year high of almost 75 with 1 year target estimate currently at 82. 52 week range of 31.90 - 78.50. The problem with investing in Nintendo is that video games represents their entire business, even if it has been consistently profitable since the launch of the Wii. There is no diversity as is the case with Sony and MS.
But based on current sales, I'm still not sure where the near universal estimates for a production increases on this site are coming from, seeing as how Nintendo's official stance is that they are holding production at 1.8m until sales recede. Unless sales are nearing the 415k production limit (not happening), or they are planning on withholding over 75k per week through 2008 (assuming consistent sales of 340k throughout 2008) which would provide an excess of 3m+ units by early November, production is not going to change, up or down.
No point in arguing until Nintendo releases their fiscal projections in March, but in the meantime, I'm continuing to hold off on purchases of Nintendo shares. If I actually believed Nintendo was planning on increasing production to 2.2 or 2.5m as some people seem to believe, Nintendo would already be in my investment portfolio, and I would currently be down by about $10 per share. I'll be watching their stock price closely over the next month.
