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There's no way the Vita will sell under 20 million, in my humble opinion. Why do I think so?

1) Sony will stubbornly continue to support it no matter how badly it sells, due to the amount they invested in its development, and pride. They simply won't drop it at a sub-20 million number of units sold, they'll keep pushing where other companies would throw in the towel.

2) Price seems to be an issue at the moment, but a high price conveys the impression of a "premium" product, so that when it does finally drop in price, people feel like they are getting an expensive item for a good price; the PS3 continues to benefit from this today.

3) Games like COD and Assassin's Creed will help it appeal to the Western market.

4) At some point, they'll make a Monster Hunter game for it, and every man, woman, child, dog, cat, fish, and bedside lamp in Japan will run out and buy one.