Depends on if MS drops the price or not. They still have a month or so decide ,and could be waiting for the last minute to cut prices (maybe a week or two before Black Friday?) hasn't a console manufacture waited late before? I could have sworn one company did before.
I think if MS doesn't drop the price they will lose outside of the US. The US is also getting a Skyrim pack in with the $300 system so I really doubt MS will lose the US.
Can't count out Nintendo *yet* because they did amazing last black friday with the Wii.
It's just that simple.