Nope, I don't think Sony are hedging their bets on PSABR being big. I just think they have an awful lineup for Japan this Christmas.
I don't see the fate of the Vita over there changing until well into next year when God Eater 2 / Soul Sacrifice come out. Maybe, maybe those games can give the Vita a boost. But I doubt any of these Christmas releases will help too much.
(That said, PSABR might do okay with a good reveal tomorrow)
As a side note, when is Ys: Celceta of Trees releasing? Is it soon, or is it next year?