badgenome said:
Well, since I have no intention to vote for the guy, he is categorically not my candidate. But when you have predictions of a +9 to +19 advantage for the Dems when they only pulled a +8 in 2008, their fucking year, there is some serious oversampling going on. |
Bingo. All you need to do to understand what Mr.Gnome posted is to actually read the metrics of the polls in question*. If they have more Dems than Reps in a year when R voter regristraitons vastly outnumber D voter registraations, there is a serious, serious oversampling problem. Even if it's within 5% points of that, it's still grossly oversampled. Those of you that are puting stock in the polls are setting yourselves up for massive disappointment.
*Funny how nobody ever actually reads the methodology when it buttresses their biases, eh?
