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Install base matters, so lets assume 10-15 mil consoles sold until next yr. How many of those will be core gamers or those interested in COD? I think 1-2 mil is a fairly optimistic guess, any more would mean many PS360 fans migrated to the U.

I will add that there's many who are Nintendo fans primarily, that gave in and bought a PS360 (like myself) to get their HD console fix. It would be very interesting to know what % of those Ninty first fans make up of the 130+ mil PS360 userbase, and how many are ready to migrate to Wii U.