Stever89 on 05 February 2008
| Sqrl said: As I'm sure some of you have heard me say in the past I use a bare minimum of 6 weeks to establish an emerging trend. With that said the Wii needs to start stringing together consecutive weeks above 100k before we can make any serious predictions. But looking at the numbers as of now its about 1.7m behind the 360 in N.A. if we say the Wii gains 70k a week (360 @ 60k/week & Wii @130k/week) then it will be another ~24.3 weeks until it catches the 360 which would be the week ending July 28th before it catches the 360 and passes it. That breakdown makes a lot of assumptions so expect it to change as the situation changes. Also feel free to adapt it for your own numbers if you want, I was just trying to put it into a rough ballpark range. I'm somewhat curious what kind of weekly sales you guys are expecting for these March predictions? Seems a little far-fetched to me, but perhaps I am being too conservative in my estimates. |
Yeah I was just about to say, if the Wii averages 50k more than the 360, it'll take 30 some weeks to get there, so doing it in a month seems pretty crazy. Now, the week Brawl is released will probably see extra units (at expense of Others and Japan), so it'll catch up faster that week, but if we say 60k a week, then in 5 weeks, at the launch of Brawl, that's an additional 300,000 up on the 360, so that means it's behind by 1.4 million. It'd have to sell A LOT of units to catch up to it right then. So I'd say the 360s lead is safe for now.
