| OoSnap said: @ Jay What is mean by "hook" is a feature of the platform that appeals to the mass market. Clearly if Nintendo made Gamecube 2.0, that is just an upgraded hardware, it would have probably sold less than Gamecube. I seriously think you underestimate how significant the Wiimote was for its success. I mean, it's a console that lacked most of the major 3rd party games and had outdated hardware and still is going to be in the 100+ million club, something the 360 and PS3 will likely never be in. Moreover it was so appealing Sony and Microsoft realized it and tried to emulate motion controls. I have more examples than than the Wii from which I draw my inference. It has been argued that PS2 sold so well because it was also a relatively inexpensive DVD player. The DS is Nintendo's highest selling platform and probably be the highest gaming platform ever if it already isn't. Apparently the dual screen and touch screen was a big hook. No other Nintendo handheld has come close to selling as much as the DS. What I mean by fail is that the 720 and PS4 will not have any impact on the mass market. It won't be a mass market console. I seriously doubt it would even sell half as much as its predecessors. Sony and Microsoft must offer something appealing - a hook to sell as much or more than their previous hardware because shinier graphics are not going to cut it especially when the consoles are going to be priced above the mass market sweet spot. I believe Nintendo has the next gen in the bag if its competitors can't bring anything new, especially if Nintendo can get most of the multiplats. |
I don't know what you mean being a "mass market console." For clarity, I'd like to ask if you think the 360 and PS3 are mass market consoles?
- If you answer yes, then my next question is: If both the X360 and PS3 can be mass market consoles without a hook, then what makes you think the 720 and the PS4 won't? If the PS360 are mass market consoles, then I see no justification that the PS4 and 720 cannot be mass market consoles.
- If you answer no, then by mass market console, you must mean a 100m+ selling console (since both the PS3 & 360 should reach 80-90m). In which case, I really cannot make any confident predictions on that. Times are definitely changing and I cannot say with any certainty what will be required by the market to sell 100m units next generation.
I think it's interesting that you said that if the PS4 and 720 don't have a hook, then they won't sell half as much as the PS3 and 360. What is your justification for this? If the PS360 can sell with no hook, but the PS4 and 720 cannot, then there is clearly a change in the market. My question is: What evidence do you have that suggests that the market is changing so much? You have shown evidence that a hook improves a console's success. But you haven't showed evidence that a hook is necessary for a console's success.
And Lastly, if your definition of 'hook' is so broad that it includes the PS2's DVD Player, then I think it's very safe to assume both the PS4 and 720 will have a multitude of hooks anyway.
