HappySqurriel on 07 September 2012
| NotUS said: Let's look at hardware sales on the home page. (PS3 + Xbox ~ 130 million combined) I would be confident in saying that the vast majority of these are hardcore to semi hardcore gamers. Let's say 30 million are in the casual bracket. Based on these numbers that's 100 million potential buyers for the 720 or PS4. The hook here is simple: Better Graphics (Detail & Effects) Better Animation Higher Resolution Better Physics Destructible Environments Larger Worlds Online Gaming Multimedia Bigger Disc Storage etc The typical upgrades that come with any new hardware launch. I'd say there are a large portion of PS3 and 360 users who are ready to use their current consoles as a door stop as they have been around for too long, and will jump to next gen at the earliest opportunity. So in my opinion, they won't fail without a hook as you suggest. Sales will be staggered like any console launch, unless the payment plan they are trialling now with the 360 plays a huge part at launch and influences higher start-up up numbers. I feel the hook will come into play for the Wii users (96 million of them), who are mostly casual. They will be sold on novelty, I wonder how many of these may turn into serious gamers wanting a more challenging game experience than offered on the Wii. I also get the feeling that due to the long console cycle, developers have had a lot more time to have AAA games ready for next gen launch. I think this will play the biggest factor in the early adoption, a large selection of next gen games, some with features unable to be reproduced on current gen, and possibly a number of current gen games patched with updated higher res graphics to further entice the move. In my opinion, despite some good games coming out, PS3 and 360 gamers are bored with current gen. Technical limits have been hit, nothing new on the table, playing the same game year after year. That's why sales are at a low point, people are just waiting... |
The PS3 and XBox 360 didn't sell 130 million consoles to "hardcore" gamers, they sold the vast majority of those systems to broader market gamers who wanted to play games like Call of Duty and these systems were their only option ... If the generation played out differently, and third party publishers produced a decent number of similar games for the Wii, a large portion of these gamers wouldn't have bought their HD console.
The typical gamer, regardless of whether they play "core" or "casual" games, doesn't really care that much about the processing power of their system; they care whether it provides new and interesting experiences.
