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TWRoO on 05 September 2012
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the_dengle said:
TWRoO said:

From how I understand your calculations... the predicted sales are derived purely from the last week of Vita sales (and then comparing to last years other platform sales). This means any bumps in sales due to games or promotions outside of the normal calendar increases (Black Friday and Christmas) are actually throwing the prediction off course.

What would be better at getting an end of year total prediction is to use a larger sales period (at least a month, but maybe go bi-monthly or quarter)... It wouldn't be as good at showing the weekly trends, but just for the end of 2012 total it would even it out a little (and wouldn't require updating as much).

I've run a few numbers of my own, essentially calculating the average ratio of hardware sales up to this point to total yearly hardware sales (we're about 47% of the way through the year). That should be a bit more accurate, but it's likely skewed by the fact that the Vita launched this year in the West. Still, it currently shows Vita selling just under 4.8 mil for the whole year, but it's been consistently dropping every week since I think the Persona release.

Yes the midway sales point of the year is usually mid September... Unless there is a price cut or something else special though, the Western launch is going to skew that.

Another workable estimation is to  estimate November being double October sales, and December being double November. (usually slightly over double). Obviously we haven't got October sales to use yet, but they are usually a slight drop from September (actually more sales per week, but September is a 5 week month)

So based on the August sales September would probably be around 5*35k = 175k... then 4*40k for October = 160k... then 2.2*160k = 352k... and 2.2*352k = 774k
That only gives a total of 1,461k though, for an end of year total at 4.186 million
Hmm, surprisingly similar to my previous calculation based on Vita monthly sales.

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I do believe the Vita will ultimately surpass these kinds of calculations mostly because it's a new system and it's first holiday season in the West (and it didn't spend much time in the holiday season in Japan last year either) but unless something changes soon it will struggle to make it to 5 million this year.