| TWRoO said: From how I understand your calculations... the predicted sales are derived purely from the last week of Vita sales (and then comparing to last years other platform sales). This means any bumps in sales due to games or promotions outside of the normal calendar increases (Black Friday and Christmas) are actually throwing the prediction off course. What would be better at getting an end of year total prediction is to use a larger sales period (at least a month, but maybe go bi-monthly or quarter)... It wouldn't be as good at showing the weekly trends, but just for the end of 2012 total it would even it out a little (and wouldn't require updating as much). |
I've run a few numbers of my own, essentially calculating the average ratio of hardware sales up to this point to total yearly hardware sales (we're about 47% of the way through the year). That should be a bit more accurate, but it's likely skewed by the fact that the Vita launched this year in the West. Still, it currently shows Vita selling just under 4.8 mil for the whole year, but it's been consistently dropping every week since I think the Persona release.
